for opening the door to honest conversation.  i think some of your diary is accurate and also a result of 2 additional factors.

1) the most closely contested primary in history between two historical candidates

2) the republican nominee is a moderate with a history of bipartisanship and 'blockbuster' bills.

does that mean i share you pessimism?  im not sure.

is sustanaible.  He had a healthy six-seven point lead immediatel post-primary until that got cut in half.  The lead appears to have returned to a six-seven point lead.

Obama has performed well enough this trip to where I think there's a seventy percent chance that McCain announces his VP next week in order to prevent the bounce from going into double digits.

This is one of those things that has been repeated so many times people just believe it without thought.  It's not true though.  There was a single poll that showed that, it was a complete outliers both in terms of the same companies other polls, and the polls coming out of the other pollsters.  

I am sure there are racists in this country who would never vote for black candidate.  On the other hand, I think the charge of racism is too easily assigned as Obama's biggest obstacle.  I have a feeling if Colin Powell was running we wouldn't see so much over-focus on that one aspect of the candidate.

I am not a racist, and I just don't like Obama.  Yeah, I guess I'm a little Puma-ish (and hence "irrational"), but you have to look at why independent voters are resistant about supporting Obama.  (Hint: it isn't because they're all racists.)  Or not... but as you say there are warning signs that Nov. will be a very close election.  

Why?  Because basically this is a very conservative country (unfortunately) and Obama has some significant drawbacks, mostly his lack of experience, I think, but also an over-the-top showiness that is putting people off.  I see it in the independents around me.  That's what they don't like.  They always had some reservations, but felt so betrayed by Bush and the Republican party they were willing to try something else.  As time goes on, however, they are getting more comfortable with McCain.  Not enthusiastic, but at least comfortable.  And the reservations about Obama actually become more solid, not less.

Never read this argument before.  ::sighs::

Implying racsim plays a part in who a person votes for is a bannable offense.

At least it was during the primary.

The warning signs started last year. Obama has an ultra liberal record, more so than Dukakis.  The DNC should have concluded that since Clinton is a long-time moderate that she woudn't have to deal with the problem of an extreme liberal past and so it would not be a good idea to publicly try to push her out of the nomination process.  There's still time to nominate her though.

I see these diaries from time to time and always end up shaking my head in wonder. Who are these complacent people the diary is aimed at? I sure don't know any and I haven't seen any on this site. Everyone realizes this is going to be a grind. The hope is that we will end up with a landslide, but that is only a dream at the moment.

Thing is, for presidential elections in this country you have to win the electoral college, not a nationwide opinion poll. Show me some polls that point to dicey electoral math for Obama, and I'll get more worried. right now, things are looking pretty nice. Doesn't mean I'll get complacent, but still reject the doom and gloom premise of the diary.

So far, Obama is running the smartest campaign I've seen in 10 election cycles.  I know everyone needs  to work, but one big difference this year is I think an unprecedented number of Democrats will.  

1.  He's where he is in the polls right now because he's an unknown quantity compared to McCain.  As we proceed through the convention and the debates, that can only change for the better.  

2.  Yes, he will encounter racism, but he will also enjoy a historic AA and youth turnout.  

3. Right now he is assembling the strongest ground operation in memory.  His people on the ground are well trained and well coordinated, something the party has sucked at for decades.  

4. It seems his campaign is focused right now on that ground operation and on shoring him up where he might have been vulnerable to McCain in the fall.  In other words, the real campaign hasn't even really started yet.

5. He's wearing McCain down by forcing him to dilute his resources and shadow box an opponent who isn't taking him on directly.  It is very telling that Obama is not reacting to McCain but McCain is now constantly reacting to Obama.

6.  The GOP is in one ugly position coming into their convention -- they can't attack the sitting president who 78'% of us despise, and they can't well ignore him without looking that much worse.  The press will make a ton of hay if Bush isn't prominently featured at the GOP convention.  But when he is?  We all get a big fat reminder of what Republicans really stand for.  If anything, the GOP convention is going to be another snoozer, which means little bounce for McCain.

7. One the other hand, the Democratic convention is shaping up to be one for the record books in terms of flash, drama, energy and excitement.  Done right (and it will be) Obama is going to get a big bounce of it.  

8.  McCain is screwing up, pretty much on a daily basis.  That will only get worse, not better.  

Obama is no Dukakis or Mondale or Kerry or Gore.  Television is his friend.  He's not a boneheaded campaigner.  Greater exposure tends to draw people to him, not repel them.

We're all getting ants in our pants because we are stuck in the campaign dog days.  The Obama trip was unprecedented in injecting that much energy this early.  Of course we all need to work our fannies off, but I for one am going to bed every night lately with a smile on my face.  

Obama's path to presidency is far from clear (Los Angeles Times)
WASHINGTON -- Even as his turn on the global stage hit an emotional peak Thursday with a speech before a cheering crowd of more than 200,000 in Germany, Barack Obama faced new evidence of stubborn election challenges back home. Fresh polls show that he has been unable to convert weeks of extensive media coverage into a widened lead. And some prominent Democrats whose support could boost his campaign are still not enthusiastic about his candidacy... Republicans are moving to exploit this vulnerability, trying to encourage unease among voters by building the impression that Obama's overseas trip and other actions show he has a sense of entitlement that suggests he believes the White House is already his.

read more at: www.latimes.com/news/la-na-challenges25- 2008jul25,0,230990.story
and
www.latimes.com/news/la-votermap,0,44329 52.htmlstory

You don't mention any.  

Obama is currently ahead by about five points.  IMO, that is just where he wants to be.  A bigger lead will force McCain to go much more negative.  The Press wants a horse race and they are doing everything they can to get one, including give McCain attack ads free airtime.  

Also, if Obama sustains this lead then he will win by a landslide.  As Nate over at fivethirtyeight.com explains:

For example, an Obama win by 5 percentage points could easily be associated with any number from about 290 electoral votes up to as many as 390, depending on how the individual states shake out.

The diarist is either easily frightened or doesn't know what he is talking about, or both.  All the political junkies I know can't wait for the race to begin in earnest.  That won't happen until after the conventions.  No one is getting complacent or over-confident.  The diarist's concern is premature and isn't backed up by any facts.  

1. that 25 point spread you are referring to in late July 1988 was immediately post-Democratic convention.  Eleven points of that was Dukakis's convention bounce.  Also, Bush at this point had not yet emerged from out of the shadow of Reagan, inarguably the most popular lame duck Republican in history.

2.  By the start of August, Dukakis's numbers took their first nosedive as Bush got one of the biggest bounces in memory from the GOP Convention, where the much trusted and beloved Reagan spoke and made the case for George Bush.

3. Dukakis then went on to commit two of the biggest blunders in campaign history -- the tank ride and his robotic debate response to a question about his wife being raped and murdered.

4. The GOP nailed Dukakis with Willie Horton and mismanagement blunders while governor.  

5. The more the public was exposed to "the smartest clerk in history" the more they disliked Dukakis.  In contrast to Obama, the guy had a personality that actually repelled flies, so much so he made GHWB seem "likable" in comparison.  wow.

6. Ultimately, however, the GOP and Bush rode Ronald Reagan like a circus pony.  Remember now, the country ADORED Ronald Reagan and all Bush had to do was go out and promise more of the same. The election was more of an affirmation of Reagan policies than anything else.